What we know about the US draft proposal that was leaked to put an end to Russia's war in Ukraine
What we know about the US draft proposal that was leaked to put an end to Russia's war in Ukraine
We now know that the draft US-Russian peace plan, which has been widely leaked, calls for giving Vladimir Putin's Russia de facto sovereignty over the parts of Ukraine's industrial eastern Donbas region that are currently under Ukrainian control.
The text's most recent iterations also demand that Ukraine reduce the number of its armed forces to 600,000.
What more is known about the manuscript, though, and who stands to gain the most from it?
What are the main ideas?
There are 28 main criteria, and on the surface, Ukraine might find some of them acceptable. Others seem ambiguous and imprecise.
A "total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe" with strong or trustworthy "security guarantees" for Kyiv and a call for early elections within 100 days would "confirm" Ukraine's sovereignty.
A "robust co-ordinated military response" is suggested, together with the reinstatement of sanctions and the termination of the agreement, in the event that Russia invades Ukraine.
Elections might theoretically take place if a peace agreement is reached, even though they are now impossible in Ukraine due to martial law.
However, there is little information on who would offer security guarantees or how strong they may be. A NATO-style Article Five pledge to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on everyone is well beyond this. If Kyiv were to sign up, it would want more than an ambiguous commitment.
Transfer of Ukraine's land and reduction of the armed forces
Giving away its own vacant land and reducing the strength of its military forces are two of the most controversial proposals.
"Ukrainian forces will leave the area of Donetsk Oblast that they presently control. This area will be regarded as a neutral, demilitarised buffer zone that is globally acknowledged as Russian Federation territory. This demilitarised area will not be entered by Russian military.
Most Ukrainians will not accept giving up the Donetsk "fortress belt" cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, which are home to at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians. Russia has been attempting to seize Pokrovsk for more than a year, and Ukraine is unlikely to cede such crucial strategic locations without a battle.
"The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel."
The number of active members in Ukraine's military was predicted to be 880,000 in January of last year, up from 250,000 at the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Although 600,000 would seem like a reasonable cap in times of peace, that kind of restriction would violate Ukrainian sovereignty. Additionally, Russia might not be able to take such a large number.
Khrystyna Hayovyshyn, the Ukrainian delegate to the UN Security Council, stated, "Our red lines are clear and unwavering: There will never be any formal or otherwise recognition of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian." The strength and capabilities of our military forces, as well as Ukraine's right to self-defence, will not be restricted.
Additionally, "Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States" is suggested in the text.
Put differently, Ukraine and other nations would not be required by law to acknowledge Russian dominance. Since it would not violate Ukraine's constitution, which states that its boundaries are "indivisible and inviolable," Kyiv might be able to accept such wording.
The front lines would be frozen in the southern provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzia, and Russia would give up territory it had previously conquered.
The future of Ukraine: with the EU but not NATO
Important pledges regarding Ukraine's strategic future are suggested in the draft:
"Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join Nato and Nato agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future."
"Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to the European market while this issue is being evaluated."
Russia has recently softened its position on Ukraine's application to join the EU, and there is little possibility that Ukraine will join NATO anytime soon. While disregarding the opinions of 27 European nations, the agreement seems to grant Kyiv access to EU markets.
One of Khrystyna Hayovyshyn's red lines at the UN on Thursday was, "Nor will we tolerate any infringement on our sovereignty including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join." Ukraine's constitution calls for membership in both the EU and NATO.
Other draft options include European fighter jets being stationed in Poland and NATO agreeing not to station troops in Ukraine. Additionally, Kyiv would need to pledge to be a "non-nuclear state."
That seems to go against the goals of the West's Coalition of the Willing, which is headed by France and the United Kingdom, to assist in policing any future agreements.
Restoring Russia's isolation
"Russia to be re-integrated into the global economy" and an invitation to rejoin the G8 group of powers are mentioned in a number of aspects about Russia's return from isolation.
With Putin under an arrest order issued by the International Criminal Court, it appears to be a long way off for the time being. Six years after Russia was expelled from the G7 for seizing and annexing Crimea in 2014, Trump attempted to reintegrate Putin.
Even less is likely to occur now if the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan were hesitant prior to the full-scale invasion.
What about the assets that Russia has frozen?
According to the proposal, $100 billion of frozen Russian assets should be put "in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine," with Europe contributing an additional $100 billion for reconstruction and the US keeping half of the profits.
In addition to leaving the European Union with nothing but large costs, this is similar to the US minerals deal with Ukraine earlier this year, which demanded an American price for engagement.
The amounts it cites might also be insufficient; earlier this year, the estimated overall cost of rehabilitation in Ukraine was $524 billion (€506 billion).
The European Union is reportedly developing a strategy to use the €200 billion in frozen assets in Russia, which are primarily held by Euroclear in Belgium, to finance Kyiv both militarily and financially.
Under the plan, the remaining frozen assets would be transferred to a "US-Russian investment vehicle," which would allow Russia to receive some of its money back while also benefiting the US financially.
What does the plan not include?
Despite a clause stating that "If Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg then the security guarantee will be considered null and void," a number of observers have noted that the plan does not mandate weapons restrictions on Ukraine's military or its arms sector.
However, it does not limit Ukraine's long-range weaponry, including its Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles.
Is this the final peace plan?
We are aware that the United States is eager to move quickly under a "aggressive timeline" with this draft; reports indicate that Ukraine has until Thanksgiving late next week to accept it.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who participated in its draughting, referred to it as "a list of potential ideas for ending this war," and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has stated that he does not consider the 28 points to be a final plan after speaking with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, another important US official.
The draft paper appears to be a work in progress in several ways, as some of the details that were leaked to US websites on Thursday are no longer visible.
The Russian foreign ministry and the European Union both stated on Friday morning that they had not yet seen the plan.
Is Putin's wish list included in the draft?
Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian special envoy, is reported to have discussed this proposal with Witkoff for up to three days, bringing up the possibility of a stitched-up deal that would benefit Moscow. However, Russia claims it hasn't even seen the plan and has responded cautiously thus far.
The strongest indication of a shift towards Russia's narrative is the transfer of Ukrainian territory to Russia, even in a demilitarised zone. However, the Kremlin, which has annexed both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in its constitution, may find it challenging to freeze the front lines in the south.
One of the suggestions is that the penalties be "agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis"; Moscow will likely view this as being far too gradual.
A proposal for "full amnesty" for all parties, however, will be highly received in Moscow and poorly received in Kyiv and other European capitals.
Although there seem to be significant concessions to Putin, observers have noted that some of the NATO standards may be too ambiguous for Kremlin preferences.
Additionally, Russia has repeatedly insisted that "the root causes" of the conflict must be eliminated in any peace agreement. The proposal seems to address stopping NATO expansion in Eastern Europe as one of those underlying causes.
While not directly backing Russia's allegations of discrimination against the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine, some of the other 28 points of the draft also make reference to these assertions.
One clear but impartial point is that "Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education."
A proposal to divide electricity produced by the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Zaporizhzhia, which is under Russian occupation, "equally between Russia and Ukraine" is another apparent attempt at fairness.
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